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Richard Cochrane is trained in chemistry and metallurgy but is far more interested and practiced as a political and fund raising consultant, writer and amateur historian. He grew up in a Navy family and with his two younger brothers carried on its 500+ year tradition of naval service to Great Britain and the USA then enjoyed a career with one of the largest advertising and public relations agencies working with numerous Fortune 500 companies and many of America's premier educational institutions. He maintains friendships and acquaintanceships around the world. He lives in Santa Barbara, California.

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Tsunami Tuesday Turtorial

February 4th, 2008 • Richard Cochrane

Cliff Notes for Tsunami Tuesday

Tomorrow is TSUNAMI TUESDAY twenty-four states hold some voting contest on Feb. 5, with 1,681 Democratic delegates and 1,023 Republican delegates to the national presidential nominating conventions on the line. A candidate needs 2,025 delegates to secure the Democratic nomination, and 1,191 to win the Republican nomination. There are 15 states holding Democratic primaries and seven states and one territory holding Democratic caucuses. There are 15 states holding Republican primaries, five states holding Republican caucuses and one state a Republican convention. Here’s the rundown:

· Alabama primary At stake: 52 Democratic delegates; 45 Republican delegates

· Alaska caucuses At stake: 13 Democratic delegates; 26 Republican delegates

· American Samoa Democratic caucus At stake: 3 Democratic delegates

· Arkansas primary At stake: 35 Democratic delegates; 31 Republican delegates

· Arizona primary At stake: 56 Democratic delegates; 53 Republican delegates

· California primary At stake: 370 Democratic delegates; 170 Republican delegates

BREAKING: Maria Shriver, wife of California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and a member of the powerful Kennedy political clan, on Sunday endorsed Barack Obama for US president, just days after her former-actor husband backed Republican John McCain. Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll shows Obama now leads in California by virtue of solid support in the Bay Area and among independents (by 20 points), men (20 points), 18- to 29-year-olds (31 points), very liberal voters (22 points), and African-Americans (75%-14%). Clinton does well among women (11 points) and among Hispanics (64%-29%).

Sen. John McCain is on a roll McCain’s leads are commanding, except for in California where Romney leads in Southern California and among women, investors, and voters over 50.

· Colorado caucuses At stake: 55 Democratic delegates; 43 Republican delegates

· Connecticut primary At stake: 48 Democratic delegates; 27 Republican delegates

· Delaware primary At stake: 15 Democratic delegates; 18 Republican delegates

· Georgia primary At stake: 87 Democratic delegates; 72 Republican delegates

· Idaho Democratic caucus At stake: 18 Democratic delegates

· Illinois primary At stake: 153 Democratic delegates; 57 Republican delegates

· Kansas Democratic caucus At stake: 32 Democratic delegates

· Massachusetts primary At stake: 93 Democratic delegates; 40 Republican delegates

· Minnesota caucuses At stake: 72 Democratic delegates; 38 Republican delegates

· Missouri primary At stake: 72 Democratic delegates; 58 Republican delegates

· Montana Republican caucus At stake: 25 Republican delegates

· New Jersey primary At stake: 107 Democratic delegates; 52 Republican delegates

· New Mexico Democratic caucus At stake: 26 Democratic delegates

· New York primary At stake: 232 Democratic delegates; 101 Republican delegates

· North Dakota caucuses At stake: 13 Democratic delegates; 23 Republican delegates

· Oklahoma primary At stake: 38 Democratic delegates; 38 Republican delegates

· Tennessee primary At stake: 68 Democratic delegates; 52 Republican delegates

· Utah primary At stake: 23 Democratic delegates; 36 Republican delegates

· West Virginia Republican convention At stake: 18 Republican delegates

California, New York and Illinois are the mother lodes and the ones to watch. Going into TSUNAMI TUESDAY Democrat Obama has 63 delegates, Clinton 48 and Edwards 26. If Obama wins California he could be the Democrat nominee. This week 650,000 SEIU (California public employee union members) endorsed him and that helps Obama. Republican McCain has 95, Romney 67, Huckabee 26, Paul 6 and Giuliani 2 delegates. McCain has a very outside chance of crossing the 1,000 delegate line tomorrow.

Huckabee is splitting off conservatives from Romney and effectively fencing him out of delegates in Georgia, Alabama and Missouri. Huckabee appears to be running hard to be picked as McCain’s VP – maybe McCain will have to make that deal. But, a better deal would be picking the likes of Florida’s Governor Crist

Hillary Clinton has a 43% to 39% advantage over Barack Obama among Democratic voters nationwide according to a Gallup poll released last Friday – the first national poll since Edwards left the race. McCain leads Romney 37-22% a jump for McCain of 6% since Wednesday’s Giuliani withdrawal and endorsement of him. Huckabee appears stuck at 13% and Paul has virtually nothing.

Ralph Nader has formed a presidential exploratory committee. Nader ran for president in the past three presidential elections getting a pittance of the vote. McCain’s strength stops Bloomberg from running. I predict OHIO DECIDES who will be Democrat and maybe Republican nominees when it holds its March 4TH Primary – that cleverly it did not move.

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