Polls
The Race Is About Race
In what is shaping up to be a presidential race about race the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday showed Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. McCain leads by double digits among White Men and Women while Obama overwhelmingly attracts the black votes 58% to 35%. Obama leads 59% to 35% among those who rarely, never, or occasionally attend Church or other religious services. Among those who attend services at least a couple of times a month, McCain leads 56% to 37%. Obama holds a 52% to 42% advantage over Clinton nationally
Close-in supporters of Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign are convinced he never will offer the vice presidential nomination to Sen. Hillary Clinton for one overriding reason: Michelle Obama who is outright hostile toward Hillary.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid may not save the Homeland Security Committee chairmanship for Sen. Joseph Lieberman if he goes through with plans to address the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn. Reid will not kick Lieberman out of the Democrat caucus because he has endorsed McCain. A rumor that is blistering Washington DC is that Lieberman recently approached one prominent supporter of Hillary Clinton with a suggestion that he consider supporting McCain if Barack Obama is nominated.
Hillary appears set to overshelmingly win West Virginia
Less Affluent Favor Gas Tax Holiday.

According to a rasmussen Poll released Thursday forty-six percent (46%) of America’s Likely Voters favor a federal gas tax holiday this summer. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 42% are opposed and 12% are not sure. Most voters who earn more than $75,000 a year oppose the gas tax holiday. Most who make less than $60,000 a year favor that policy change. Among those make less than $20,000 a year, 62% favor the gas tax holiday while only 11% are opposed.
McCain proposed suspending the 18 cents a gallon federal tax and Hillary supports it. Obama opposes it.
Wright Hurting Obama More and More
Rev Wright hurt continuing to grow for OBama says a new Rasmussen Poll. Only 4% of American adults believe that comments made by Barack Obama’s former Pastor have helped Obama’s bid for the White House. Sixty-six percent (66%) believe that the comments made by Reverend Jeremiah Wright have hurt Obama’s chances of winning.
However, just 24% say that Obama’s denunciation of his former Pastor make them more likely to vote for him. Twenty-seven percent (27%) say it makes them less likely to support the Illinois Senator. As you would expect, these results break sharply along partisan lines. Democrats, by a 35% to 20% margin say they are more likely to vote for Obama because he publicly denounced Wright. Republicans, by a 38% to 15% margin, say the opposite. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 17% are more likely to vote for Obama, 25% less likely.
Clinton lead OBama in Indiana 46-41% and OBama leads Clinton in North Carolina 49-40%according to polling released Tuesday morning.
Character Doesn’t Count!
Nationwide, in what is being called the “Bill Clinton Effect” 52% say character doesn’t count and matters less than a politician’s policies according to a Rasmussen poll released Wednesday.
Democrats, by a 2-to-1 margin, say it’s the policy options that matter most. Republicans, by a narrow 49% to 43% margin, disagree and say that character counts. Among unaffiliated voters, 49% say policies are more important while 32% say character is more important.
Wright’s Rants Wrecking Obama
Barack Obama said Tuesday that his relationship with REV JEREMIAH WRIGHT has changed because of what Wright said contradicts much of what Obama stands for has done and is trying to do. Obama said yesterday’s “performance” by Wright was a “bunch of rants.” Obama said what Wright said contradicts his fundamental convictions; was a:show of disrespect to me” and an “insult to what we have been trying to do in this campaign.” Obama said nothing Wright said yesterday was constructive and Wright “caricatured” himself. Obama said he made clear to Wright that his “sound bites” was inexcusable when he spoke with him before his Philadelphia speech.
Obama said Wright was never his spiritual mentor nor advisor but his pastor. That parses the words “mentor” and “advisor” when compared with what Obama described in his book. Obama has been sent reeling by Rev. Wright’s radicalism. Obama said it was only yesterday that he realized the tone and impact of Wright. Main stream media is filled with denunciation of Wright.
NEWT GINGRICH said yesterday and on Tuesday’s ABC SHOW the VIEW that Wright appears is trying to harm Obama. Observation and polls appear to prove that if that is correct Wright is succeeding.
Wright’s comments have raised Obama’s already majority unfavorability ratings even higher with 41% saying he hurts their opinion of Obama.
Obama Outspends Clinton But She’s Still Better Against McCain - Maybe
Obama and Clinton have spent a combined $110 million on TV ads up to now in their nearly year long and still in conclusive campaigns for the Democrat presidential nomination. Obama has shelled out nearly $70 million of the total spent so far, Still, it hasn’t necessarily worked in Texas, Ohio and then Pennsylvania. Obama outspent Chinton two to one or more in Pennsylvania and is expected to do the same in next weeks lead up in North Carolina and Indiana. Evan Tracey of TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis Group adds: “Clinton doesn’t have as much money … but if she’s allowed to dictate the tempo, she can make up for that lack of spending.” John Kerry spent a then record $20 million in his failed campaign four years ago.
Hillary Rodham Clinton has a better chance than Barack Obama of beating Republican John McCain, according to a new Associated Press-Ipsos poll released Monday apparently reflecting a “bounce” after her big win in Pennsylvania and repeated revelations about Obama. In a hypothetical head-to-head match up with the GOP nominee-in-waiting; she now leads McCain, 50 percent to 41 percent, while Obama remains virtually tied with McCain, 46 percent to 44 percent.
Rasmussen polling has Obama and McCain tied but McCain leading Clinton 47-44%. 37% of Republican voters nationwide now believe the Democratic frontrunner would be the tougher candidate against John McCain. That’s down from 54% earlier this month. An essentially equal number, 35%, now believe Hillary Clinton would be the stronger Democrat in November. That’s up from 20%.Unaffiliated voters are also evenly divided on this question. Forty percent (40%) see Obama as the most electable Democrat while 36% say the same about Clinton. Earlier in April, unaffiliated voters saw Obama as the bigger challenge to McCain.
Safer With McCain Than Clinton Or Obama
An April 22 Ipsos poll finds (52%) feel the world would be a safer place with John McCain as President versus Clinton (45%) and Obama (44%).
Americans in the South (59%) and the Midwest (57%) are more likely than those in the West (44%) or the Northeast (43%) to think that John McCain would make the world safer as president. Men (57%) are more likely than women (47%) to feel the same way.
On the other hand, Americans living in the West (55%) are more likely than those living in the Northeast (47%), the Midwest (43%), or the South (40%) to think that Hilary Clinton would make the world safer. Regarding Barack Obama, Americans between the ages of 18 and 34 (50%) are more likely than those between the ages of 35 and 54 (46%) and those over the age of 54 (36%) to think that he would make the world a safer place. As well, Western Americans (52%) are more likely than Northeastern (44%), Midwestern (43%), and Southern (40%) Americans to feel the same way.
McCain Leads; Obama and Clinton ‘Unfavorables’ Climb
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows John McCain leading both potential Democratic candidates by seven
percentage points. McCain leads Barack Obama, 48% to 41% and also leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 42%.
McCain is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 40%. Democrat back biting, infighting and a series of embarrassing disclosures are hurting both candidates. Obama’s ratings are 47% favorable and 51% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 45% favorable, 53% unfavorable. Obama leads Clinton nationally 45% to 43%.
MoveOn.org Lip Quivering Mad.
MoveOn.org immediately mounted a protest petition campaign against George Stephanopolis, Charlie Gibson and ABC News after last Wednesday’s debate in Pennsylvania saying (they/it) “spent the first 50 minutes obsessed with distractions that only political insiders care about—verbal gaffes, polling numbers, the stale Rev. Wright story, and the old-news Bosnia story. And, channeling Karl Rove, they directed a video question to Barack Obama asking if he loves the American flag or not.” Because, according to the radical left website “”Debate moderators abuse the public trust every time they ask trivial questions about gaffes and ‘gotchas’ that only political insiders care about. Enough with the distractions—ABC and other networks must focus on issues that affect people’s daily lives.”
Other leftist blogs and websites joined in with similar complaints. Conversely most in other in moderate, conservative and if you prefer “normal” communities did not see the debate that way; are not complaining, and in fact a majority called the 21stdebate the most productive to date. Nationwide Americans the things that MoveOn.org is complaining about do matter to them.
A post debate Rasmussen poll released Friday had the race in the Keystone State at 47-44% Clinton over Obama. Last Monday, Clinton was leading Obama 50% to 41%. Six percent (6%) of Obama voters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting. Only 2% of Clinton supporters say the same.
No Change in Pennsylvania Over Barack’s ‘Bitter’ Comment
A Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll taken after Barack Obama’s ‘bitter’ comment shows it so far has not made any significant difference in Pennsylvania with Clinton continuing to hold a 50 – 44% lead. The Pennsylvania Primary is next Tuesday, April 22nd.
White Democrat voters back Clinton 57 – 37%; Blacks back Obama 88-8%, and voters under 45 go with Obama 55 - 39, while older voters back Clinton 55 - 40 percent.
Obama Throws Bomb — Blows Up In His Face
As of Monday morning fifty-six percent (56%) of voters nationwide disagree with Barack Obama’s statement that people in small towns “cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.” A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that just 25% agree with the Democratic frontrunner while 19% are not sure.
A plurality of politically liberal voters—46%–agree with Obama’s statement while 33% disagree. Moderate voters take the opposite view and disagree by a 51% to 27% margin. Seventy-four percent (74%) of conservatives disagree with Obama’s statement, only 12% agree.Democrats are fairly evenly divided—34% agree with Obama and 43% disagree. Generally, Obama supporters agree with him while Hillary Clinton’s supporters disagree.
Republicans overwhelmingly disagree with the statement and unaffiliated voters disagree by a two-to-one margin.
Voters under 30 are evenly divided on Obama’s statement while their elders strongly disagree. Fifty-three percent (53%) of African-Americans agree with Obama’s statement while 29% disagree. White voters disagree by a 3-to-1 margin.
Presidential Polling
State-by-State poll released by Rasmussen Saturday shows 240 electors in the Republican column including: 168 safe; 21 likely and 51 leaning. Democrats total 268 including: 157 safe; 33 likely, and 70 leaning. Toss-ups total 38. Thirteen states with 159 Electoral Votes are either a pure Toss-Up or just slightly leaning to one party or the other. These are likely to be the early battleground states of Election 2008: Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21), Ohio (20), Michigan (17), Virginia (13), Missouri (11), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (7), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), and New Hampshire (4).
Safely Democrat states include: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3). Safely Republican include: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).
Although not empirical but more emotional Rasmussen Markets data shows that the Democratic candidate is currently given a 59.2 % chance of winning the White House in November. Its daily Presidential Tracking Poll on Saturday shows John McCain with a very slight advantage over Barack Obama, 47% to 43%. In a match-up with Hillary Clinton, the results are the same–McCain 47% Clinton 43%.
McCain Decisiveness Jangles Iran
Dick Morris says the recent results of a USA/Today poll found Obama winning the traditional Democratic (and female and I would say “youth”) virtues of understanding problems and caring about people. McCain won the usual Republican (and male and I would say mature) virtues of strong leadership and efficient management. Not surprisingly Morris says “in an age of terrorism, weakness is a capital crime. McCain needs to base his campaign on establishing Obama’s weakness and his own strong leadership by comparison.”
Obama won: • Cares about the needs of people like you, 66% to 54% • Shares your values, 51% to 46% • Understands the problems Americans face in their daily lives, 67% to 55%
McCain won: • Is a strong, decisive leader, 56% to 69% • Is honest and trustworthy, 63% to 67% • Can manage the government efficiently, 48% to 60%
Neither won: • Has a clear plan for solving the country’s problems, 41% to 42% • Has a clear vision for the country’s future, 67% to 65% • Would work well with both parties in Washington to get things done, 62% to 61% • Is someone you would be proud to have as president, 57% to 55%.
This comports almost exactly with my thesis that with McCain in the White House the international advantage tilts toward the U. S. because of his decisiveness. Conversely, America’s enemies have become convinced that they can flim-flam Obama and by the time he awakens it will be too late for the U. S. Iranis particularly confident an Obama presidency means it will be a nuclear power.
You can expect an intensification of attacks in Iraq and Afghanistanas the November election approaches, and a media frenzy over that in an effort to hurt McCain and help Obama, or on the outside chance she can still “steal” the Democrat nomination, Hillary Clinton.
Sunday, April 6th Presidential Polls
On Sunday, April 6th Rasmussen polling reported Obama now attracts 50% of the vote while Clinton earns 42%. John McCain currently leads Barack Obama 48% to 43% and Hillary Clinton 48% to 44%.
McCain is viewed favorably by 55% and unfavorably by 42%. Obama’s reviews are 52% favorable and 46% unfavorable. For Clinton, those numbers are 47% favorable, 51% unfavorable.
The Electoral College continues to tighten Democrats lead in states with 190 Electoral Votes while the GOP has the advantage in states with 189. When leaners are added, the Democrats lead 243 to 240 – a toss-up. 270 Electoral votes are needed to win.
The economy remains the top issue of Election 2008 but nearly half the country believes the best thing the government can do is get out of the way. At the same time, 47% consider Global Warming a Very Serious problem, but a solid plurality sees a conflict between economic growth and environmental protection.
Most Say “No” To Borrower’s Bailout
Fifty-three percent (53%) of Americans say that the federal government should not help out homeowners who borrowed more than they could afford – 29% disagree; 17% are not sure. The Bush administration is finalizing details of a plan to rescue thousands of homeowners at risk of foreclosure by helping them refinance into more affordable mortgages backed by public funds, government officials said.
Gore Not Messiah
On Friday Rasmussen polling found that Democrats would vote 42% for Obama; 26% Clinton and 23% Gore if he was a candidate. 41% say Obama is best against McCain; 26% say Clinton and 23% say Gore. Among White Male Democrat voters, Obama leads Gore 40% to 33% while Clinton trails with just 18% support. Among White Women, it’s Clinton 37%, Obama 30%, and Gore 25%. Among African-American voters, it’s Obama at 70%, Clinton with 14%, and Gore barely registering at 5%. The survey also found that 41% believe that Obama would be the strongest general election candidate against John McCain. Twenty-six percent (26%) say that Gore would be the strongest candidate while 23% named Clinton. 36% said Clinton would be the weakest general election candidate. Twenty-nine percent (29%) named Gore as the weakest and just 19% said that description applies to Obama.
Also on Friday Hillary Clinton has a near hissy fit about calls for her to quit the race for the Democrat nomination saying she isn’t going anywhere. Also on Friday Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Deam he wants decision made on the party nominee by July 1st – the last Democrat Primary is June 3rd.
In the November election McCain leads Barack Obama 49% to 42% and Hillary Clinton 49% to 41%.
No Dice On Florida Democrat Redo

Florida’s Democrats voted NOT to conduct a PRIMARY VOTE REDO by mail or otherwise. That means the 210 Democrat delegates originally picked could stand. The January 29th vote had a record turnout, and Hillary Clinton won the state. The Democrat National Committee, chaired by former Vermont Governor Dean will have to decide
FERRARO FIRESTORM SPLITS DEMOCRATS
If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position” is the comments by former Democratic Vice Presidential nominee Geraldine Ferraro that has further polarized Democrats. 39% of Clintonvoters agree and 47% disagree while 93% of Obama voters reject Ferraro’s premise. Sixty-two percent (62%) of Black voters believe Ferraro’s comments were racist. Just 23% of White voters agree. Ferraro also said that Clinton was treated unfairly by a “sexist media,” and (57%) of Clintonvsupporters agree while 26% disagree. Obama voters disagree by an 85% to 9% margin. Among all Likely Democratic Primary Voters, 55% believe Obama has received better treatment from the media while 20% say Clinton has received the better coverage. By a 72% to 10% margin, Clintonvoters believe Obama has been the media favorite. Obama voters are evenly divided. If Obama wins Democrat nomination, just 57% of Clinton voters say they are even somewhat likely to vote for him against John McCain. If Clintonis the nominee, just 64% of Obama voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for her against McCain.
In the November General Electionis tied no matter who the Democrats nominate– it’s McCain 44% Obama 44% and McCain 44% Clinton 44%.