Primaries

It is no surprise that my mind is preoccupied with feisty ladies. The biggest one, of course, is tropical storm Fay who will be passing close to my home later today. Unlike the three hurricanes which went right over my roof during a 6-week period in 2004 this one will be more ladylike. As of this morning, Fay is taking her time as she dawdles up through Florida leaving a trail of minor wind and rain damage.

The other feisty ladies are four groups I happened to find while surfing the internet. I would look for these ladies to be raising their voices next week in support of the feistiest lady of the land, Hillary Clinton. According to The Stiletto, these different groups are now all coming together into one group, The New Agenda, to promote a variety of women’s issues.

It is more interesting, however, to look at the individual groups. I think the largest group is PUMA, which stands for Party Unity My Ass. Ever since Obama won the Democratic Primary, Howard Dean and Barack Obama have been continuously lecturing that all Democrats must now come together as one party. The name of this pro-Hillary group pretty much sums up what these women think about that!. As Hillary supporters they are demanding a roll call of votes during the DNC Convention next week to remind everyone how many votes Hillary did have and just how close Obama came to losing plus they wanted Hillary to have a prime time slot for her speech.

I Own My Vote is a group of Hillary supporters who argue that their votes do not belong to any party or candidate and that they will vote however they like. See a trend here? In fact their website http://www.iownmyvote.com/ would make a McCain staffer proud. They are also demanding a roll call of votes during the DNC Convention to remind everyone how close the race was etc.etc.etc.

Just Say No Deal appears to be a group of PUMA bloggers who are demanding a roll call of votes to remind everyone blah blah blah. Together 4US is a group of 8,739 women who have signed a pledge requesting that the DNC Convention have a roll call of votes yadda yadda yadda. You get the picture.

Four different groups of women, all furious with the Democratic primary, all continuing to support Hillary and not only wanting Hillary to be recognized during the DNC Convention but to remind Obama that he just barely won. For many, they are not only pro Hillary but have become anti Obama as evidenced by their stinging rhetoric in their websites and by their “NOBAMA” signs. Apparently some of these women have reached the tipping point where they are so angry with their party that they are actually voting for McCain. This is making an impact as the polls have been showing that Obama is not doing as well as expected in the “white women” group.

Now all these pro Hillary groups are merging together. Tropical Storm Fay might be causing havoc this week but it sounds as if these other women might do the same during the DNC Convention . I think that Howard Dean just might have his hands full if these women come out in force in Denver. I also wonder what would happen if they all start to chant for Hillary, especially if they do so while Obama is standing by himself in that stadium. Fay may have moderately high winds and even throw off some tornadoes but nothing will come close to what Dean and Obama might have to face as they are reminded of that oh so true statement: Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned…

Supreme Court Decisions Don’t Change Presidential Polls Though Most agree With Handgun Decision.

Following several key decisions just 26% gave the U. S. Supreme Court Justices good or excellent marks for their work. down from 31% two weeks ago and 41% a month ago. Voters overwhelmingly agreed with the decision overturning a Washington, DC ban on handguns. Most voters think there’s a chance gas prices will top $5 a gallon this year Only about a third believe prices will top $6 a gallon or fall below $4 again. Most reject the notion that conservation alone will bring prices down and are evenly divided about whether new energy sources can accomplish that goal. All the posturing on energy issues and the Supreme Court had little short-term impact on the Presidential race with Obama sticking in the high 40s and McCain 4-5% behind. The benchmark is July 4th with many believing If Obama is 10% ahead then McCain can not overcome it.

McCain’s call for offshore oil drilling has helped him in Florida and hurt in California where he trails 58-30% Obama leads 84-6% among Democrats, and only gets 67% of Republicans. Just 46% of Californians favor offshore drilling while 57% do nationwide.

History has been made, as the personally gifted and politically talented Obama, self appointed agent of “Change” has been proclaimed by news agencies as over the top in delegate count for the 2008 Presidential Nomination for the Democratic Party defeating the once seemingly certain nomination of Hillary Clinton.

While not ceding defeat her surrogates including husband Bill and Terry McAuliffe and others have signaled what can not be said while she is still trying to get a deal from Barack. That may be happening in back channels but it is not obvious that she will get what she wants anytime soon.

She wants to be offered or rejected for the VP slot and Obama will probably not make that decision soon. Hillary really has insufficient leverage to force him to accept her with Bills baggage right away at least.

Campaign funds are also likely on her mind as she and Bill have donated maybe $10 million or more to her campaign. Obama can arrange to have his campaign pay off her campaign debts, meaning she gets the money back.

On going power and presence at the top of the party hierarchy is also on her mind. If she isn’t VP, she could be in the cabinet, she could become Senate Majority Leader and she could have some “pocket vetoes” so anyone lobbying Obama for any position or appointment, will feel some pressure to lobby her at the same time.

Michigan Senator Carl Levin says the fixed privilege Iowa and New Hampshire have enjoyed for too long should be changed and which he and others have tried to get changed in the past unsuccessfully. He repeatedly mentioned “with all the power that gives them.” Not exactly power to the people, rather power to some people.

He recounted the history of the Michigan delegation attempts to deal with the Perpetual Privilege those two states have enjoyed, despite a national committee ruling that would have put someone between Iowa and New Hampshire. He says that New Hampshire ignored the party committee, refusing to participate in spreading the power by scheduled their primary for the first position. He charges that they were rewarded by “getting a waiver” from the national committee’s own rules.

His and other advocates arguments, were often times persuasive on both sides. I felt like a ping pong ball. All of this demonstrated something most of us give lip service to but understand so little.

The wisdom of our founding fathers.

Before I tell you what part of their wisdom I believe is relevant to this circus, let me first say, the founding fathers were fallible human beings doing their work in a completely different time and under completely different circumstances. While some may think that “fallible human beings” is the definition of any given group of white men, as a conflicted person, I can not yet accept that!

Regardless, I won’t attempt to discuss in detail or even mention everything that can be fairly debated about what they created. However, my grand conclusion is that the world should be grateful for what they created as a way for human beings to govern themselves regardless of it’s flaws. It’s wisdom trumps it’s flaws. One of my recurring rhetorical questions is will our current actions be the same, will our wisdom trump our flaws?

For now, I will only mention that some of the Founding Fathers were slave holders and they denied the vote to both slaves and women partially by silence on the issue. It seems that when they voted for the words “all men are created equal” they specifically meant or at least tolerated and in some cases lived the meaning that the “men” were not mankind, rather it meant white men. In that day, as a colony of England, it was a big step to allow white men who did not own land or have a noteworthy lineage, to vote. Pretty big step at that time.

Advocating the elimination the state level delegate system (yeah, that get’s my vote!) and allowing the direct vote in the presidential primaries by the Democratic Party, Rick Jacobs in the Huffington Post wrote the following:

The framers of the constitution did not trust the public to select the chief executive. They also needed a series of compromises to convince the small states to sign the Constitution. The Electoral College addressed both concerns handily. In today’s world, the prospect of introducing a mechanism by which to buffer the people’s will would be laughable. 2008 should be the last year that any democratic institution insulates itself from the people. While it takes a constitutional amendment to end the Electoral College, it takes only a vote of the Democratic Party delegates to end indirect, manipulated elections. If leaders can’t trust their own members and voters, how can the people trust our leaders? See the entire article here.

Some of us know that the founding fathers did create a pure democracy, but a republic and what that means. Fewer of us know that it is believed by historians that the founding fathers did not think the creation of political parties to be a good thing. For sure, they did think that an indirect system rather than direct voter would be best for President and for the laws we pass.

Neither major party, now that we unfortunately have them, should continue its impossibly flawed electoral system for it’s candidates. It simply rearranges the acknowledged back room practices that enabled a very few to determined the candidate selection in past years and which the current system is designed to fix.

They failed in their purpose even though so much of the process is public, because it is still fraught with unintended consequences. Additionally, given the persuasive skill of our lawyers, the emotion of the issues, and the richness and complexity of our language, all of us would be better off if the members of the private clubs called political parties let their members directly select their candidates.
However, the wisdom of indirect elections at the national level should continue as it exists today. In this environment, no changes should be made to how we elect the President from among the various parties nominees. No changes should be made in this environment to how our House of Representatives or our Senators are elected, who then pass bills by rules they create, another example of how a republic, representative, non pure democratic form of government conducts business.

If there weren’t more important issues facing our country, I might say we should appoint a commission to review the strengths and weaknesses of our current system, for the sole purpose of educating the public. Then maybe someday, decades in the future, that debate can begin.

Not today. We should forget about rearranging any of the chairs in this environment of partisan conflicts so obvious in a failed Democratic Party nomination process to say nothing of the inability of the major parties to be collegial in tehir opposition and find a way to eliminate the acrimony and permanent posturing for an election.

My strong view, is that the most important decision facing us is NOT whether Clinton, Obama or McCain is our president. We can do well as a nation regardless of which becomes President, despite differences that seem to be so pivotal.

What this country needs is a little dose of unity between the parties, regardless of who is president, even a little positive nationalism where in we take a sober non political look at our national interests. We need all of our politicians to stop being so arrogant and to understand our changing place in the world. It is important to understand that we do not site at the near unreachable top of the pyramid in terms of power to protect ourselves anymore.

The world has changed and it is very noteworthy that during this rise of power in other nations, these nations are clearly going to look out for their national interests, and most importantly that their national interest will be determined as interpreted by only a few entrenched leaders already at the top. Putin will never leave. The nominal only communist leaders in China will be unopposed for some time, absent violent revolution. The incredibly rich leaders in the Middle East Countries will bow down to the state religion only because they control the public emotion and if required, the vote in most countries.

All the while we piddle with ineffective Private Party Primary Politics which can legally sell the nomination to the highest bidder under our laws as interpreted by the courts fi they want. Given the money in politics that is almost, not quite, what we already do.

Only in America.

Michael Barone in a U.S. News and World report says about the Democratic proportional delegate nomination and Puerto Rico: “And they aren’t likely to be proportionately distributed.”

You might find this four month old article interesting despite the fact that his prognosis for Hillary did not turn out so well, but if he is proven right in the upcoming primary about the Puerto Rican Democrats, you will see some first class irony, unintended consequences and inconsistency. I didn’t say hypocrisy, but you decide. Then take a look at what Wikipedia tells us about Puerto Rican voting in Presidential Elections:

“The major differences between Puerto Rico and the states are:

• Puerto Rico does not have the rights of a state as granted by the US constitution, because it is not a state. These include:
  • Lack of voting representation in either house of the U.S. Congress, as the US Constitution provides these rights only to full states. The only delegate to the Congress is an elected Resident Commissioner who represents the people of P.R. in the United States House of Representatives. The delegate may speak but cannot vote for final passage of congressional legislation, and may serve and vote in committees, as well as the Committee of the Whole.
  • The ineligibility of Puerto Rican residents to vote in presidential elections, as the US Constitution provides these rights only to full states. (Note, residents the [[District of Columbia only attained this right in 1960 by a constitutional amendment.) P.R. does not have any electors in the U.S. Electoral College, although the Puerto Rico chapters of the Republican and Democratic parties can (and do) have state-like voting delegations to their respective nominating conventions, as well as voting representation in the Democratic and Republican National Committee.

So let’s see here:

1. If Puerto Rican voters and their Democratic Party officials on June 1, 2008 give all their delegates (63) to Barack Obama he will be the Democratic Presidential Nominee is in the primary in June 2008. At the time of this post, he only lacks 43. If Puerto Rico goes all for Hillary, then Barack will have to wait until June 3, 2008 assuming the Rules Committee has not punted.

2. But these Puerto Rican Democrats join their Republican comrades in that they are all  ineligible to vote in the general election in November 2008 for that same nominee.

The artifacts of history create interesting situations, to say the least.

Just 30% of the nation’s Likely Voters believe Barack Obama denounced his former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, because he was outraged. Most—58%–say he denounced the Pastor for political convenience according to a Rasmussen Poll released Friday. Only 33% of voters believe that Obama was surprised by the views Wright expressed at Monday’s press conference. Fifty-two percent (52%) say he was not surprised.

Fifty-six percent (56%) say it’s at least somewhat likely that Obama “shares some of Pastor Wright’s controversial views about the United States.” Just 7% of the nation’s voters agree with Wright’s views of the United States. African-American voters, by a 64% to 12% margin, disagree with Wright. Seventy-four percent (74%) of Republicans believe it’s somewhat or very likely that Obama shares some of Wright’s views. That assessment is shared by 48% of Democrats and 49% of those not affiliated with either major party.

In Indiana Clinton attracts 46% of the Democrat votes while Obama earns 41%. With just a week to go before Election Day, 13% remain undecided. Clintonleads by nineteen percentage points among White voters. Obama leads 90% to 4% among African-Americans.

In North Carolina Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 49% to 40%. Earlier this week, Obama led by fourteen, 51% to 37%. A month ago, Obama led by twenty-three percentage points. Clintonleads by twenty-three points among White voters while Obama leads 74% to 10% among African-Americans. Clintonleads among senior citizens, the candidates split those in the 50-64 age range, and Obama leads among younger voters.

On Charlier Rose, when asked, Howard Fineman talked about the conventional wisdom that a 6%, margin in Pennsylvania, which he is a part of creating in his Cable TV roles behind the big desks, is the tipping point for a win or a lose for Hillary against the Politician Formerly known as Barry.

He said Gov Rendell and Vernon Jordan may be among those who personally will tell Hillary it is time to call it a done deal, but that more importantly it will be the funders and their bundlers who will make it clear that the race is over. He further said Hillary is already broke and will not want to spend the next few years at fundraisers to pay off accumulating debts and even if she wins by more than 10% in Penn, that convincing win will be undone by future primaries, the numbers and the proportional system works against her and for so many reasons time is too short and she is unlikely to win the nomination.

While referring to current Clinton loyalist Harold Ickes, who carried Ted Kennedy’s water at a previous long past Democratic Convention in a last ditch effort to dislodge Jimmy Carter as the incumbent nominee, in the race he lost to Ronald Reagan, Fineman indicated that if that occurred in Denver in Aug 08 at the Democratic National Convention, a lot of damage will be done and by inference would increase John McCain’s less than likely chance to beat either Democrat in November.

So when will the money guys send the message?

And if they do, will Hillary et al be willing and try to find a way to nontheless joust with the politician formerly known as Barry in Denver this August?

Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton squared off last night in a debate that failed its billing of determining which one will be the Democrat presidential nominee after next Tuesday’s, April 22^nd Pennsylvania primary.

Both are running low on patience with the other and could barely remain civil amid a barrage and counter barrage of increasingly nasty TV ads in the Keystone State. Neither expected to be fighting it out in a debate two and one half months after the now infamously inconclusive SUPER TUESDAY PRIMARIES.

Post debate a record number of undecided Democrats told Frank Luntz’s focus group they’d vote for McCain depending on which one the Democrats nominate. But, the debate did not appear to change many decided Democrat minds. Clinton’s lead hs been slipping in Pennsylvania but pundits and Pennsylvania Governor Rendell think Clinton can still pull off a 10% win picking up 200,000 votes. Rendell is notorious for saying Obama can not win in Pennsylvania.

Obama’s “bitter” castigation of gun-toting God nuts had begun to bite him as Hillary has squirted out to a 9-point lead 50-41% according Rasmussen polling. The schism was stark with Clinton leading among voters who say faith and religion are Somewhat or Very Important. Obama leads among those who say such topics are Not Very Important or Not at All Important. Among voters from households where someone owns a gun, Clinton leads by seventeen points. Voters from other households are more evenly divided.

BARACK OBAMA won 7 of Wyoming’s 12 delegates. Minor but critical because he mean’s Clinton has to win over 60% of future delegates to win the nomination in Denver in August. Now it’s on to Mississippi next week. Wyoming is overwhelmingly Republican. Democrats are the distinct minority and blakcs are approaching the majority amng them.

Hillary Clinton waddled out of Tuesday’s Primaries with Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island under her arm with the bleeding stopped and ready to answer the bell in Pennsylvania on April 22^nd for its 158 delegates in a “closed” primary. (Before that is March 8 in the Wyoming closed primary with 12 delegates and March 11 in Mississippifor 33 delegates). Obama won only Vermont and failed again to strike a knockout blow letting Hillary wobble out of dystopia for the next round although she is still behind on points. Dark clouds are gathering over the Democrat Convention Monday, August 25 through Thursday, August 28. The big bugaboo is the fate of “outlaw” delegates from Floridaand Michigan that Clinton won but the Democrat National Committee said would not be seated or count because both states moved their primaries up knocking its pompous collective nose out of joint.Nothing will be decided in the Democrat race until at least May 6^th in North Carolina (115 delegates) and Indiana (72 delegates) and likely not even then.

How much the alarming and damning youtube video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1J22vLeOwZk describes Obama’s views and plans to disarm America combined with the “red phone” ads cost him in uncertain. In Ohio Barack Obama’s senior economic policy adviser was caught privately telling Canadian officials to view the debate in Ohio over trade (NAFTA) as “political positioning,” according to a memo obtained by The Associated Press. Initially vociferously denied by BO’s crowd an independent Canadians source say it is true. Combined this tipped undecided voters away from Obama.

John McCain trounced Huckabee everywhere and locked up the Republican nomination as Ron Paul continued with his Harold Stassen like non-campaign. Huckabee had the good sense to quit hanging on to third place in the delegate count. Huckabee pledged support to McCain for the future of America. Ralph Nader picked his Vice President thereby ending another political career.

According to the Sunday Times of London, Barack Obama has his sights set on two Republicans Senators for his cabinet – anti-war Chuck Hagel of Nebraska for Secretary of Defense and Richard Lugar of Indiana – the ranking GOP member on Foreign Relations — for Secretary of State. Karl Rove, code name “Turd Blossom” is saying McCain should pick Mitt Romney as his VP. A study shows of TV network news finds 84% of Obama stories favorable and 53% for Clinton but, can NBC and others continue its unremitting fawning over Obama?

OBAMA supporters and the left in general are upset SATURDAY NIGHT LIVE uses a “non-black” man in makeup to lampoon BARACK OBAMA. Saying it smacks of “blackface” burlesque comics and if SNL is to continue they should find a black man apparently with suitable ears. Cynics say this is really an effort to stop SNL from spoofing Obama.