All Posts Tagged With: "Polls"
POTUS Race Tied Up As GOP Gets Twin Bounce - Convention and Palin.
Obama 14% Lead Among Women Halved
McCain is chipping away as Obama’s convention “bounce”, most of his gains have come among women voters. Obama still leads 51% to 44% among women, but that seven-point edge has been cut in half from the fourteen point lead Obama enjoyed last Tuesday. Most all of that is due to Sarah Palin’s pick as VP and the splendid job she did last week with her acceptance speech. In fact we are right back where we were before either convention, i.e., 46% for Obama and 45% for McCain. The trend is toward McCain-Palin and away from Obama-Biden.
McCain leads by 3% among men, little changed in recent days. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Obama voters now say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate while 17% are primarily voting against the other candidate. For McCain, those numbers are 65% for and 28% against respectively. Before the Republican convention, just 54% of McCain voters were voting enthusiastically for him rather than simply voting against Obama.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 57%.
Palin is viewed favorably by 58% of voters including 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of her which is remarkable given the pummeling she has suffered by main stream media. Biden has disappeared from the national conversation leading some pundits to observe it is a two-to-one contest against Obama. Others are saying Palin should debate Obama.
The Electoral College count currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes. Data from rasmussenreports.com/markets.rasmussenreports.com blocked::http://rasmussenreports.com/markets.rasmussenreports.com rasmussenreports.com/markets.rasmussenreports.com blocked::” href=”http://rasmussenreports.com/markets.rasmussenreports.com” target=”_self”>Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a 57.1 % chance of winning in November. That has been trending toward McCain.
The Rasmussen polls are conducted by telephone nightly among 1,000 likely voters nationwide and compiled on a three-day rolling average.
Presidential Race “Too-Close-To-Call” But, Some New Movements
Fewer say McCain is too old, and more say Obama is too inexperienced
When “leaners” included, a Tuesday Rasmussen Report poll has Obama 47% and McCain 45% among likely voters. For the past three weeks, Obama’s support (with leaners) has been between 46% and 48% every day. During that three-week stretch, McCain’s support has been between 45% and 47% every day and the candidates have been within one or two points of each other every day.
There is movement beneath the surface. The number of voters who say McCain is too old for the job has declined while the number who say Obama is too inexperienced has moved up a bit. Voters are now evenly divided as to whether Obama has enough experience for the job. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of voters now rate the economy as the top issue of Election 2008, down from 40% yesterday and 45% a week ago. This comes as the Rasmussen Consumer Index shows consumer confidence growing to the highest levels of the past five months.
National security concerns are the top priority for 25%, up from 21% a week ago most likely the result of the Russo-Georgian War. Data released yesterday shows that 50% of Americans support a UN peacekeeping force to address the situation between Russia and Georgia, but only 22% want U.S. troops to be part of a multi-national force. In other shifts forty-six percent (46%) of voters now believe Obama is likely to win the White House in November. That’s down from 54% in June but little changed from a month ago. Twenty-eight percent (28%) expect McCain to win and 22% say it’s too close to call. Nine percent (9%) expect an Obama landslide victory while 4% say McCain will win big.
Twenty-four percent (24%) of voters say they spend more than an hour a day discussing or following the campaign. Thirty-nine percent (39%) spend fifteen minutes or less on the topic, including 20% who say they don’t discuss the campaign at all on a typical day. Twenty-three percent (23%) consider the election exciting while 21% say it’s boring.
Data released last week from North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Nevada, Iowa, Michigan, and Missouri confirmed the national trend and showed just how close this race is on the eve of the two nominating conventions.
When leaners are included the Electoral College totals are: Obama 273, McCain 227. Nevada (5); Ohio (20) and Virginia (13) are toss-ups. There are 163 Electors in the toss-up or leaning states. McCain is viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 54%.
For First Time Since June McCain Leads Obama In New Rasmussen Nationwide Poll
McCain Leading or Tied On Most Issues Important to Voters (See table below)
Sixty-nine percent (69%) of the nation’s voters say they’ve seen news coverage of the McCain campaign commercial that includes images of Britney Spears and Paris Hilton and suggests that Barack Obama is a celebrity just like them. Of those, just 22% say the ad was racist while 63% say it was not.
However, Obama’s comment that his Republican opponent will try to scare people because Obama does not look like all the other presidents on dollar bills was seen as racist by 53%. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree.
As for Obama’s comment, 53% of white voters saw it as racist, as did 44% of African-Americans and 61% of all other voters.
Most African-American voters-58%–saw the McCain ad as racist. Just 18% of white voters and 14% of all other voters shared that view.
Most voters favor the presumptive Democratic nominee’s proposal for a $1,000 energy credit for working families.
But voters are evenly divided on Obama’s call for a windfall profit tax on oil companies, perhaps because many fear it will lead to higher gas prices.
The survey shows that 39% of voters favor a windfall profits tax on oil companies, 36% are opposed, and 25% are not sure. Democrats favor the windfall profits tax by a 52% to 22% margin while Republicans oppose it by a nearly identical margin (55% to 23%). Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided.
Forty-two percent (42%) of voters believe a windfall profits tax will lead to higher gas prices while 12% believe it will reduce the price of gas at the pump.
There is more support for providing working families with a $1,000 energy credit-55% favor the idea and 29% are oppose. Democrats overwhelmingly endorse the concept with 67% in favor and just 19% opposed. Republicans are evenly divided. Forty-eight percent (48%) of unaffiliated voters favor the energy credit while 31% are opposed. Lower income voters strongly support the idea while upper income voters are less enthusiastic
Overall, 26% of voters expect gas prices to go up between now and Election Day. Thirty-one percent (31%) think prices will be down and 36% expect prices at the pump to stay about the same. McCain is column one and Obama column 2
| Economy | 45% | 45% | |
| National Security | 52% | 40% | |
| Energy | 46% | 42% | |
| Ethics | 44% | 46% | |
| Iraq | 51% | 39% | |
| Immigration | 45% | 36% | |
| Environment | 40% | 48% | |
| Balance Federal Budget | 43% | 40% | |
| Negotiate Trade Agreements | 45% | 40% | |
| Taxes | 47% | 40% | |
| Social Security | 44% | 38% | |
| Healthcare | 41% | 46% | |
| Education | 39% | 43% | |
| Abortion | 40% | 34% |
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows the race for the White House is tied with Barack Obama and John McCain each attracting 44% of the vote. However, when “leaners” are included, it’s McCain 47% and Obama 46%.
A spray of polls find discontent with Congress, and Reporters.
A new WSJ/Fox News Poll finds 75% of Americans demanding more domestic oil be produced.
It is then not surprising that just 15% approve of the job Congress is doing as Democrats block and delay any new oil production.
Fifty percent believe the media makes economic conditions appear worse than they really are, Only a quarter (25%) think reporters and media outlets present an accurate picture of the economy.
49% say reporters are trying to election Barack Obama president only 14% say they are trying to help M<cCain win.
An Investors Daily study of 255 reporters founds that 92% contribute to Democrats and less than 8% say they have contributed to a Republican
McCain Invites Obama to Accompany Him to Iraq To “Educate Him.”
Republican John McCain gut punched Barack Obama on Memorial Day Monday when he sharply criticized his Democrat rival for not having been to Iraq since 2006, and said they should visit the war zone together. “Look at what happened in the last two years since Senator Obama visited and declared the war lost,” the GOP nominee-in-waiting told The Associated Press in an interview, Obama really has no experience or knowledge or judgment about the issue of Iraq and he has wanted to surrender for a long time.”McCain continued to drive home his points by questioning whether Obama has ever been briefed by Petraeus. “I would also seize that opportunity to educate Senator Obama along the way,”said McCain a much decorated Naval Academy graduate and Naval Aviator, wounded combat veteran and tortured Prisoner of War.
Obama’s camp was clearly knocked off pace mumbling that Obama, himself not a veteran, wouldn’t politicize Memorial Day of its purpose of honoring (fallen) vets, But, it was tepid at best.
If Barack doesn’t go, political pundits say McCain will and will carry along an Obama stuffed shirt effigy to punch at every opportunity.
McCain and Obama are tied in a Rasmussen Poll released at Noon on Monday at 45% each which is the third tie in 7-days while McCain has been ahead 2-3% nationwide. McCain is viewed favorably by 50% of voters nationwide and unfavorably by 46%. Obama’s numbers are 48% favorable and 49% unfavorable Opinions about Obama remain stronger.
Concern about Obama’s inexperience has been increasing.
The Race Is About Race
In what is shaping up to be a presidential race about race the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday showed Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 46%. McCain leads by double digits among White Men and Women while Obama overwhelmingly attracts the black votes 58% to 35%. Obama leads 59% to 35% among those who rarely, never, or occasionally attend Church or other religious services. Among those who attend services at least a couple of times a month, McCain leads 56% to 37%. Obama holds a 52% to 42% advantage over Clinton nationally
Close-in supporters of Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential campaign are convinced he never will offer the vice presidential nomination to Sen. Hillary Clinton for one overriding reason: Michelle Obama who is outright hostile toward Hillary.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid may not save the Homeland Security Committee chairmanship for Sen. Joseph Lieberman if he goes through with plans to address the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn. Reid will not kick Lieberman out of the Democrat caucus because he has endorsed McCain. A rumor that is blistering Washington DC is that Lieberman recently approached one prominent supporter of Hillary Clinton with a suggestion that he consider supporting McCain if Barack Obama is nominated.
Hillary appears set to overshelmingly win West Virginia
Less Affluent Favor Gas Tax Holiday.
According to a rasmussen Poll released Thursday forty-six percent (46%) of America’s Likely Voters favor a federal gas tax holiday this summer. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 42% are opposed and 12% are not sure. Most voters who earn more than $75,000 a year oppose the gas tax holiday. Most who make less than $60,000 a year favor that policy change. Among those make less than $20,000 a year, 62% favor the gas tax holiday while only 11% are opposed.
McCain proposed suspending the 18 cents a gallon federal tax and Hillary supports it. Obama opposes it.
“Dozens” of Obama Media Supporters Are Playing Distressed
It seems striking to me that the talking heads who are obviously Obama supporters (Chris Matthews et al) seem most completely distressed by the witty performances of Rev Wright.
There is a poll out saying that 41% or more say the Reverend’s non bombastic debut on the national stage “with a difference” has harmed Barack Obama. Thrown him under the bus according to Keith Olberman and others.
What if those 41% were already McCain or Hilary supporters? If so, is this just so much hysteria about nothing? Could the media actually be guilty of making the news rather than reporting it?